Analysis | Haaretz
Former Mossad Chief: Putin’s Nuclear Threats Show His Desperation
Efraim Halevy, who led Israel’s Mossad from 1998 to 2002, writes for Haaretz on the war in Ukraine, explaining why Putin played the nuclear card so soon and how Biden can still offer the Russian leader an honorable exit
Mar. 1, 2022
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision Sunday to play the nuclear threat card for the first time since the end of the Cold War, and to do so less than a week after invading Ukraine with a massive ground force, requires more than a perfunctory mention.
On the face of it, the move appears self-defeating given the clear, massive advantage Russia has in conventional forces over Ukraine. If the threat had to be announced so soon, the reason for this invites serious analysis. In my view, it reflects an element of growing desperation on Putin’s part.
First and foremost, it points to the failure of the troops on the ground to score a spectacular success. They lacked experience and were very short on motivation. Those who became prisoners of war in Ukraine told a grim story of complete ignorance as to the motives for the operation. They thought they were undergoing a training exercise rather than being saddled with a comprehensive challenge to defeat an enemy within days.
Moreover, their plight being relayed back home helped the internal opposition in Russia, which succeeded in organizing widespread public demonstrations in several cities – leading to many thousands of arrests. Meanwhile, the Russian economy suffered a major setback as a result of the tough international sanctions, further increasing the domestic pressure on Putin.
Russian President Vladimir Putin addressing the nation in Moscow last week .Credit: /AP
On the international scene, Moscow is isolated and enjoys very little sympathy. Eleven of the 15 members of the UN Security Council supported the U.S. draft resolution censuring Russia. Of those abstaining, China stood out – Russia’s closest and most powerful ally on the international scene. China also made it public that its leader, Xi Jinping, had advised Putin to enter into negotiations with Ukraine, advice Putin rejected the very same day using the most derogatory language.
Putin has tried to emphasize the historical nature of the current dispute. The truth is that for many years in the 20th century, Russia and Ukraine were partners in one national entity. Mikhail Gorbachev, the last president of the Soviet Union, was the son of Russians of Ukrainian origin. Nikita Khrushchev, who confronted U.S. President John F. Kennedy during the Cuban Missile Crisis, had his origins in “Western Russia” and grew up in the Donbas region. But Putin has failed to realize that once the international community has accepted Ukraine as a member state, the clock of history cannot be turned back by force.
The very hint of a nuclear confrontation reminds many of the October 1962 nuclear missile crisis, when Russia sent a squadron of fighter aircraft to Cuba and a warship carrying nuclear warheads, bringing the U.S. East Coast within range of this capability. Thirteen agonizing days passed until a team of high-level figures at the White House managed to resolve the crisis. Perhaps their success can inform us how to avoid a nuclear catastrophe in our current, escalating crisis.
By pure coincidence, at the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis, Isaiah Berlin was on a private visit to the United States. Isaiah, a close relative of mine, had served in World War II as Winston Churchill’s personal emissary to both Washington and Moscow, and was highly regarded in both capitals.
One evening during those tense autumn days, he was attending a cocktail party in Washington when the front door opened and President Kennedy came in and asked if Isaiah was there. He walked up to him, shook his hand and left.
The following day, Isaiah and his wife were invited for a private dinner at the White House. The president picked the brains of his guest, seeking an answer to one vital question: “What can I offer the Russian leader that will enable him to explain to his domestic followers why he ‘gave in’ and removed the nuclear threat from our shores?”
Shortly afterward, the Russian aircraft and the missile-carrying destroyer were withdrawn. A few months later, the United States removed Jupiter missiles from Turkey, taking down a capability that was threatening and disturbing in the eyes of Russia.
Turning to today, the challenge for the White House is equally clear: How to support the brave and innocent citizens of the bleeding Ukraine, while at the same time providing Putin with an honorable exit – one he can reasonably present to his domestic supporters.
The massive damage that has already been dealt to Putin's prestige, both internationally and domestically, is immense and will require years to overcome. A ceasefire is one possible step in the right direction, but it must be accompanied by the the United States and Russia working together to produce the outlines for a long-term solution. Putin cannot afford a Chechen style end to the present war, while Biden cannot afford to let events spin out of control.
Efraim Halevy served in Israel's Mossad for four decades and led it during the years 1998-2002.
Isaiah Berlin, pictured in 1994.Credit: Effigie/Leemage